Well here we are again, time to vote for the party we want to lead us through the next five years.
I see financial carnage over the next 18 months which I have already written and spoken about in recent months so we need strong leadership to see us through this very trying period.
Read on and I will let you in to what I see the outcome being.
You may have watched my video on the snakes and ladders of the financial markets a few weeks back where I warned of a fall down the snake.
Well in the European markets the German DAX was riding high at 12400 and the FTSE100 at 7122 with people still buying. They now sit at 11250 and 6820 respectively. As said previously this is the most dangerous phase of the stockmarket as greed and complacency set in. Worse still people were being enticed into Shares ISA’s at record stockmarket peaks in April. This as I kept saying is the worse time to invest in ISA’s. Anyone who invested will have seen a fall of around 10% in their ISA valuation if they invested in shares as the snake bites again.
The financial markets are like the weather, up and down like a wind vain. Today early trading saw a big fall only to see a rally into this afternoon. Strangely in Cheltenham it started with blue skies, then it poured down and now its bright sunshine again!
Now short term the markets will toss and turn and then decide on the direction they wants to take but it’s going to be very stormy. As with the weather the financial markets are fickle, they will do what they want and usually determined by greed or fear.
So what’s the likely outcome? This is my prediction on what various polls are showing up to today.
Conservatives likely to get 296 seats
LibDem’s 30 seats
Labour 262 seats
SNP 35 seats
UKIP 5 seats
Others i.e Northern Ireland and Co 22 seats
So the likely outcome is a continuing coalition with Conservatives and LibDem’s as they are with a total of 326 seats. Think of this alternative though – Labour with their 262 seats forming a government with LibDem 30 seats and SNP 35 seats. This would give them a majority 327 seats! I would seriously think about leaving the UK for five years if this happens!
Highly unlikely but not entirely impossible! I have colleagues that are trading on the likely number of seats that each party will get –not for me I prefer to play it much safer with sure bets.
It will probably take a few weeks for them to all agree and force their policies onto each other with some give and take before they can form a government, so don’t be surprised if the markets are extremely volatile in the meantime.
Also keep a watch out for Greece news as they have another big interest payment to make next week with no money to pay with unless they receive a further bailout. They will only be making loan repayments with more loans. It’s not going to happen is it? Nothing in the European mandate that says Greece has to exit but this is now looking more likely. This will cause turmoil in the markets as we see a contagion spreading through Europe.
So this month is going to be extremely volatile which I love because this provides an abundance of opportunities as the financial markets will present gifts on silver platters but you need to know where to find them so look out for my videos and emails over the next few days and weeks. In particular depending on the results I will let you know how the property and banking sector will play out. I will warn you though that they will be seriously affected by the outcome so this is a great opportunity for investors and traders. However for others they will be hit very hard in their pockets if they are not prepared for what’s to come.
To finish up it’s only Thursday (a short week) and it’s been extremely profitable thanks to the fall in the German DAX.
Please look out for my video tomorrow on “The week that was” - The theme will be how to profit massively from the financial markets.
Take care and enjoy watching the election results as they unfold,
Adam
P.S If you’ve not seen it yet get last night’s Charlie Bookers election wipe on BBC2 on catch up– hilarious!!
PPS If you are reading this on Friday 8th May then you know who is in !
No comments:
Post a Comment